BiQ: Assessing Iovance's 2024 Earnings and 2025 Guidance (IOVA)
Please note that most of the information below was communicated to BiQ Premium members in the Premium Chat room early Friday morning since I can share ad-hoc information in Chat much quicker than writing and publishing an article. I encourage BiQ Premium members to take advantage of this valuable resource, which is included with a BiQ Premium membership. Interested members can find instructions on accessing BiQ Chat by clicking here.
Iovance Biotherapeutics (IOVA) posted Q4 revenue of $73.7M and full-year 2024 earnings of $164.1M, coming in near the top of their guidance (full earnings details are available in the IOVA iQ Cheat Sheet for Premium members). Management also reiterated full-year 2025 guidance of $450-475M. Despite this, shares sold off on heavy volume to an intraday low of $3.60 on Friday--recovering to $4.23 by the closing bell.
Despite meeting guidance, I think there were two main reasons for the sell-off (putting macro conditions and the inherent volatility of biotech stocks aside for a moment).
- Concerns about IOVA's ability to meet 2025 guidance.
- Concerns about gross margins.
Both of these are valid concerns, but as we will explore in the paragraphs below, I don't think the risks are as significant as they seem at first glance.