BiQ: Where Is Iovance Headed in 2025? (IOVA)

My job is never about convincing someone to buy or sell a stock. In fact, my job is never about trying to convince anyone of anything. Investors can find plenty of that from sell-side analysts, Twitter bloggers, or any number of writers on popular investment platforms. My job at Biotech iQ is to present information, provide context, and offer my interpretation. That's all.

I mention this because I want to talk about a company that seems to generate a lot of strong opinions: Iovance Biotherapeutics (IOVA).

I clearly recall when IOVA shares were selling for $10-$15 in early 2024, following the launch of Amtagvi. At the time, I liked Amtagvi, but I thought IOVA shares were far too expensive. Still, hope & enthusiasm are powerful motivators, and investors couldn't seem to get enough.

Fast forward one year. By the end of 2024, the company had 70 ATCs, treated over 200 patients with Amtagvi, improved gross margins from around 0% to 38%, and is on the brink of its first ex-US approvals. Shares are now selling for under $3.50, yet the same folks who were promoting the stock at $10+ a year ago now can't seem to run away fast enough.

I became interested in IOVA recently when I noticed the company's valuation had returned to more reasonable levels now that the hope and enthusiasm had largely been drained from the stock price. What we have today is a commercial-stage company with the only approved cell therapy proven to generate durable responses in advanced solid tumors (currently approved for 2L+ advanced melanoma), selling at an enterprise value of less than 2X estimated 2025 revenue.

The purpose of this article isn't to lay out an investment case for IOVA, but BiQ premium members are encouraged to review my iQ Cheat Sheet for IOVA for more information. My purpose in this article is to examine where IOVA might be headed in 2025.

To begin, here's a quick revenue and cash flow projection I've prepared using a few simple assumptions. Keep in mind this is only an illustration and may not be representative of actual 2025 revenues and cash flows. However, at the very least, it provides us with a framework for further analysis: